MACRO OBSERVATIONS

What we are seeing in markets

Periodic, sourced notes on rates, credit, equities and the AI build-out. Observations only: no recommendations.

LATEST
11 October 2026

A late-cycle market, pressed by real rates

Higher real yields and a Fed that is still hiking are the binding constraint. Equities are being carried by earnings growth rather than valuation, credit stress is building in the weakest borrowers, and the AI build-out is increasingly financed with outside capital. No forced-selling trigger is visible yet; the denser risk calendar falls in December to February.

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INTERACTIVE2 September 2026

Where the AI dollar goes, 2025 to 2027

A to-scale flow-of-funds map of the AI build-out: who pays, who spends, who keeps it, and what the market pays for each node. Data as at September 2026.

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IMPORTANT INFORMATION

These observations are general market commentary, published for information only. They are not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, and they do not take into account any reader's objectives or circumstances. Mentions of companies are not recommendations. Figures are as dated and sourced; our own calculations and estimates are labelled as such. Views may change without notice.

Compiled with AI assistance (Claude, developed by Anthropic) from public sources. Anthropic is one of the companies discussed.

JUELUNAI Advisory · Singaporehello@juelun.vc