INTERACTIVE · AI FLOW OF FUNDS · 2 SEPTEMBER 2026

Where the AI dollar goes, 2025 to 2027

A flow-of-funds map of the AI build-out, drawn to one dollar scale: who pays, who spends, where the money lands and who keeps it, for 2025, 2026 and a 2027 scenario, with what the market pays for each node. Click any bar for the detail and its sources.

Flows compiled 2 September 2026 (2025 and 2027 columns 8 September) · market values at the 4 September 2026 close (Asia 8 September) · published 16 October 2026

01 · WHAT THE MAP SHOWS

A build funded by core cash flow and debt, with profit at the chokepoints

Lab revenue is an order of magnitude smaller than the build.

Anthropic and OpenAI had about $105B of combined annualised revenue in August 2026, against $733B of 2026 capex guided by Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta: roughly 7 to 1, from 14 to 1 in 2025. In our 2027 scenario the gap narrows only to about 6.5 to 1.1,18,37,41,44,46

Core businesses pay for it, and bonds increasingly fill the gap.

The four put about 99% of their annualised operating cash flow back into capex in 2026, against about 71% in 2025. Their bond issuance reached $219B by 20 August 2026, from $108B in all of 2025. In our 2027 scenario their combined free cash flow is about −$190B.37,39,42,45,57,58,138

Profit concentrates at three chokepoints.

Nvidia kept about 66 cents of each revenue dollar as operating profit in its latest quarter, TSMC about 60 and the memory makers 70–80 on a price spike. The two labs are the only node on the map with a net cash outflow.61,62,77,86,89,92

The market pays least where retention is highest.

At the 4 September 2026 close, memory makers traded at 4.6× next year's consensus earnings, TSMC at 18× and Nvidia at 15× its fiscal 2028. The two labs' private marks stood at 17× their run-rate and the equipment makers at 29–30× earnings. Multiples are our calculations from public consensus.234,231,208,197,199,243,246

02 · THE MAP

Six hops, three years, one dollar scale

Use the year toggle or the arrow keys to compare years; the bars and ribbons keep the same scale, so widths compare directly. The italic line under a bar is what the market pays for it. Every figure has its basis and sources in the panel.

The map includes Anthropic, the developer of the AI model used to help compile it. See the note at the foot of the page.

2026 basis: lab run-rates (Anthropic end-Jul, OpenAI mid-Aug), hyperscaler CY2026 capex guides at midpoint, latest-quarter operating cash flow annualised, Nvidia Q2 FY27 annualised, TSMC near its +40% guide, memory Q2 annualised. Compiled 2026-09-02.

Labs vs capex
$105B of lab revenue under $733B of big-four capex: 7 to 1
Who pays
Big-four operating cash flow ≈ $690B/yr; capex took ≈ 99% of it in the latest quarter (mixed bases); bonds fill the gap
Who keeps it
Nvidia 66% · TSMC 60% · memory 70–80% operating margins; the labs are the only net outflow
What the market pays · 2026-09-04
Labs 17× run-rate · Big four 69× kept · Nvidia 25× retained · TSMC 31× retained · Memory 4.6× P/E · S&P 500 19.5× forward earnings (FactSet, 2026-09-04)

Esc closes the panel · Tab moves between bars · Enter opens · ← → change year

2026 · LATEST RUN-RATES AND GUIDES$100B per year0 · WHO PAYS1 · THE LABS2 · THE HYPERSCALERS3 · WHERE THE CAPEX LANDS4 · THE CHOKEPOINTS5 · EQUIPMENT · RETAINEDEnd customers of the labs$105B run-rate · Anthropic $65B, OpenAI >$40BLab equity raised in 2026$217B · OpenAI $122B, Anthropic $95BCore franchises: ads, retail, Officeoperating cash flow ex-lab compute ≈ $580BBonds issued, 2026 to date$219B investment-grade, five namesAnthropic + OpenAI$322B in: revenue + equity$1.8T private · 17× 2026 run-rateLab cash reserves ≈ $212BOpenAI plans to burn $25B in 2026Big-four hyperscalersMSFT · AMZN · GOOGL · META$909B in · 2026 capex ≈ $733B$12.2T mkt · 23× P/E · 69× 2026 keptAI clouds, enterprise, sovereign≈ $161B/yr of Nvidia demand$568B mkt · ORCL 20× P/E · rest loss-makingBuybacks, dividends, cash ≈ $176BDC shells, power, grid ≈ $293B≈ 40% of capex · builders, utilities$712B, 4 names · 30× P/E · 4.5× salesCPUs, storage, assembly ≈ $95B$610B mkt · 21× P/E · 2.0× salesServer memory: HBM + DRAM ≈ $100Bbought inside the servers · est.Custom ASIC + AMD ≈ $50BBroadcom AI $58B FY26 · AMD $6.7B/qtr · TPU$2.68T mkt · 22× P/E · 9.7× salesNvidia ≈ $356B DC run-rate$195B big four + $161B otherGM 75% · op margin 66%$5.55T mkt · 15× P/E · 25× 2026 retainedOther TSMC customers ≈ $119BApple · AMD · Qualcomm · MediaTekMemory makers ≈ $133B AI-relatedSK hynix · Samsung · Micronop margins 70–80%$3.40T mkt · 4.6× P/E · 5.9% FCF yieldASIC vendor margin, other ≈ $35BNvidia retains ≈ $224Boperating margin 66%buybacks ≈ $104B/yrequity into customers ≈ $85B/yrNvidia R&D, SG&A, capex ≈ $43BODMs: Foxconn, Quanta ≈ $23B$152B mkt · 12× P/E · 0.4× salesTSMC ≈ $167B revenue2026 guide +40% · GM 67.7%operating margin 60%$2.03T mkt · 18× P/E · 31× 2026 retainedASML ≈ $20B≈ a fifth of TSMC capex · FY26 €43–45B$670B mkt · 29× P/E · 10.5× salesApplied, Lam, TEL, KLA, fabs ≈ $75B$1.15T mkt · 30× P/E · 9.4× salesTSMC retains ≈ $65Bafter $62B capex · op margin 60%TSMC labour, materials, opex ≈ $40BMemory makers retain ≈ $75Bafter ≈ $33B AI-attributable capexMemory cash costs ≈ $25B

≈ marks our estimate. Capex composition per Alphabet (60/40) and Microsoft (two-thirds short-lived assets); custom-ASIC share 10–20% of accelerator dollars; Nvidia's payees from TSMC's 20-F and Morgan Stanley/Yonhap; memory shown AI-related only (phones and PCs excluded). Retained = revenue less cash costs and capex for TSMC and memory, less costs for Nvidia. Market values: US names at the 2026-09-04 close, Taiwan, Korea and Japan at the 2026-09-08 close, Amsterdam at 2026-09-07; the labs at their latest primary-round post-money. P/E and EV/sales use consensus for the fiscal year that covers calendar 2027, from public aggregators (MarketScreener, Yahoo Finance, stockanalysis), with the basis stated per company. The multiple on the map divides market value by the bar's own figure for the year shown: the cash it keeps, or the labs' revenue run-rate. Compiled 2026-09-09.

All flows · 2026 · latest run-rates and guides
FromTo$B / yrKindBasis and noteSources
End customers of the labsAnthropic + OpenAI105Cash paid for goods and servicesSubscriptions, API and enterprise revenue: $105B combined run-rate (Anthropic end-Jul, OpenAI mid-Aug 2026). Bases differ: Anthropic books marketplace revenue gross.[1][18]
Lab equity raisedAnthropic + OpenAI217Capital-markets funding: equity, bondsPrimary lab equity in 2026: OpenAI $122B at $852B post (Mar); Anthropic $30B Series G (Feb) + $65B Series H at $965B (May).[27][8][9]
Core franchisesBig-four hyperscalers580Cash paid for goods and servicesBig-four operating cash flow ≈ $690B/yr (latest quarter annualised) less ≈ $110B of estimated lab compute spend already inside it.[37][39][42][45]
Bonds issuedBig-four hyperscalers219Capital-markets funding: equity, bondsInvestment-grade bonds 2026 to date, five names: JPM AM $219B (2026-08-20). FactSet: incremental debt = 32% of capex over the last twelve months.[58][57]
Anthropic + OpenAIBig-four hyperscalers110Cash paid for goods and servicesEstimated annual lab compute spend to the clouds (revenue plus burn). Commitments are multi-year: OpenAI about $1.4T over 8 years; Anthropic more than $300B disclosed.[26][25][12][13]
Anthropic + OpenAILab cash reserves212Internal costs, reserves, buybacksEquity not yet spent: cash reserves and burn cover (OpenAI cash and securities $73B at Q1-26; plan to burn $25B in 2026).[23][22]
Big-four hyperscalersBuybacks, dividends, cash176Internal costs, reserves, buybacksCash in less capex: buybacks, dividends and cash build (derived).[37][39][42][45]
Big-four hyperscalersDC shells, power, grid293Cash paid for goods and services≈ 40% of capex: data centres, power and networking (Alphabet 40%; Microsoft about one-third long-lived assets; FactSet compute ≈ 60%).[44][37][57]
Big-four hyperscalersCPUs, storage, assembly95Cash paid for goods and servicesResidual of the compute bucket: CPUs, storage, networking silicon and assembly (estimate).[57]
Big-four hyperscalersServer memory100Cash paid for goods and servicesMemory content of AI servers, HBM plus server DRAM (estimate; Amazon raised its 2026 capex by $20B on memory cost alone).[41][94]
Big-four hyperscalersCustom ASIC + AMD50Cash paid for goods and servicesCustom ASIC + AMD ≈ 10–20% of accelerator dollars (Morgan Stanley); Broadcom AI ≈ $58B FY26 across all customers (raised on 2026-09-02).[68][69][70]
Big-four hyperscalersNvidia195Cash paid for goods and servicesNvidia Hyperscale segment $48.7B in Q2 FY27, annualised (10-Q, 2026-08-26).[62]
AI clouds, enterprise, sovereignNvidia161Cash paid for goods and servicesNvidia ACIE segment (AI clouds, industrial, enterprise, sovereign) $40.3B in Q2 FY27, annualised. Includes Oracle and CoreWeave.[62][63]
Server memoryMemory makers100Cash paid for goods and servicesServer memory bought inside servers flows to the three memory makers.[94][95]
NvidiaNvidia retains224Retained by the nodeRevenue less cost of goods and expenses: operating margin 66% (Q2 FY27). Buybacks + dividends ≈ $26B per quarter; equity purchases $42B in H1 FY27.[61][62]
NvidiaNvidia R&D, SG&A, capex43Internal costs, reserves, buybacksR&D $7.1B and SG&A $1.4B per quarter, own capex ≈ $2.7B per quarter.[62]
NvidiaODMs23Cash paid for goods and servicesAssembly: Foxconn ≈ 50%, Quanta ≈ 31%, Wistron ≈ 19% of NVL72 racks (Morgan Stanley estimate).[76]
NvidiaTSMC33Cash paid for goods and servicesWafers + CoWoS: Nvidia was 19% of TSMC 2025 revenue (≈ $23B); 2026 estimate ≈ $33B.[75][82]
NvidiaMemory makers33Cash paid for goods and servicesHBM: SK hynix ≈ two-thirds of HBM4 for Rubin; Nvidia supply commitments $279B, primarily memory (annual spend estimated).[74][62]
Custom ASIC + AMDTSMC15Cash paid for goods and servicesBroadcom, AMD, TPU and Trainium wafers at TSMC (estimate; Broadcom ≈ 15% of 2026 CoWoS).[73]
Custom ASIC + AMDASIC vendor margin, other35Internal costs, reserves, buybacksVendor margin (Broadcom adjusted EBITDA ≈ 68%), memory and assembly inside custom systems.[68]
Other TSMC customersTSMC119Cash paid for goods and servicesTSMC 2026 revenue ≈ $167B (≈ +37% on 2025; the slightly-above-40% guide implies ≈ $171B) less the AI accelerator wafers shown.[77][79][82]
Memory makersMemory makers retain75Retained by the nodeAI-related memory revenue less cash costs and capex (SK hynix op margin 76%, Micron 80%, Samsung DS ≈ 70%).[86][89][92]
Memory makersASML8Cash paid for goods and servicesMemory makers' EUV purchases (estimate; memory = 34% of ASML FY25 system sales).[85]
Memory makersApplied, Lam, TEL, KLA, fabs25Cash paid for goods and servicesMemory capex to Applied, Lam, TEL, KLA and fab construction (AI-attributable share; SK hynix ≈ $33–35B and Micron ≈ $27B in total).[87][89]
Memory makersMemory cash costs25Internal costs, reserves, buybacksCash costs of the AI-related memory revenue (estimate).[86][89]
TSMCTSMC retains65Retained by the nodeRevenue less cash costs and 2026 capex of $60–64B (cash basis; reported operating margin 60%).[77][79]
TSMCASML12Cash paid for goods and servicesASML share of TSMC capex ≈ a fifth (upper bound ≈ 22% from ASML's Taiwan-region sales).[85]
TSMCApplied, Lam, TEL, KLA, fabs50Cash paid for goods and servicesThe rest of TSMC's $60–64B capex: Applied, Lam, TEL, KLA, testers, fab construction.[79]
TSMCTSMC labour, materials, opex40Internal costs, reserves, buybacksLabour, materials, utilities and opex (cash costs excluding depreciation; estimate).[77]
What the market pays · values at 2026-09-04
BarMarket valueBasisP/EEV / salesFCF yield12-month× 2025× 2026× 2027ESources
Big-four hyperscalers$12.21TMSFT $3.71T + GOOGL $4.14T + AMZN $2.79T + META $1.57T, 2026-09-04 close23×5.3×1.2%−18% to +46%44× kept69× kept76× kept[181][182][183][184][185][186][187][188][189][190]
Anthropic + OpenAI$1.82TOpenAI $852B post-money (2026-03-31; August tender at the same mark) + Anthropic $965B post-money (Series H, 2026-05-28)————63× run-rate17× run-rate11× run-rate[197][198][199][200][201][202][203]
Nvidia$5.55T24.1B shares × $230.36, 2026-09-04 close15×8.2×2.3%+34%50× retained25× retained14× retained[206][207][208][209]
Custom ASIC + AMD$2.68TBroadcom $1.70T + AMD $0.78T + Marvell $0.20T, 2026-09-04 close22×9.7×1.8%AVGO +17% · AMD +195% · MRVL +249%———[210][211][212][213][214][215]
CPUs, storage, assembly$610BDell $340B + Arista $244B + Super Micro $26B, 2026-09-04 close; the listed server and networking names behind this bar21×2.0×1.1%DELL +314% · ANET +37% · SMCI −3%———[216][217][218][219][220][221]
DC shells, power, grid$712Ba sample, not a sum: GE Vernova $251B + Schneider $194B + Eaton $160B + Vertiv $108B; contractors, utilities and land are unlisted or not AI-attributable30×4.5×3.7%VRT +123% · GEV +57% · SU +31% · ETN +18%———[222][223][224][225][226][227][228][229][253]
TSMC$2.03T25.93B shares × NT$2,470 (2026-09-08 Taiwan close) at 31.50; the ADR implies $2.22T18×8.4×1.8%+109% Taiwan · +82% ADR47× retained31× retained29× retained[230][231][232][253]
Memory makers$3.4TSamsung $1.28T (common ex-treasury plus preferred) + Micron $1.15T + SK hynix $0.98T; Korea at the 2026-09-08 close4.6×2.4×5.9%MU +718% · Hynix +547% · Samsung +285%———[233][234][235][236][237][238][239][240][241][253]
ASML$670B384M shares × €1,500.40 (2026-09-07 Amsterdam close) at 1.1622; the ADR implies $659B29×11×1.7%+127%———[242][243][244][253]
Applied, Lam, TEL, KLA, fabs$1.15TLam $385B + Applied $361B + KLA $243B + Tokyo Electron $159B; Tokyo at the 2026-09-08 close30×9.4×1.5%LRCX +206% · AMAT +187% · TEL +162% · KLAC +113%———[245][246][247][248][249][250][251][252][253]
ODMs$152BHon Hai NT$3.53T + Quanta NT$1.26T at 31.50, 2026-09-08 Taipei close; aggregator data, medium confidence12×0.4×−1.6%Hon Hai +23% · Quanta +27%———[254][255][253]
AI clouds, enterprise, sovereign$568BORCL $457B + NBIS $62B + CRWV $49B, 2026-09-04 close—5.4×−7.8%ORCL −29% · CRWV +2% · NBIS +249%———[191][192][193][194][195][196][204][205]
HOW TO READ IT
Hop 0 · Who pays

Three sources of cash enter the system: end customers (≈ $105B/yr to the labs plus the clouds' own AI lines), the hyperscalers' non-AI franchises (≈ $690B/yr of operating cash flow), and capital markets (≈ $219B of hyperscaler bonds so far in 2026, ≈ $217B of lab equity). The first source is an order of magnitude smaller than the build it is supposed to justify; the other two are what actually fund it.

Hop 1 · The labs

Anthropic and OpenAI convert customer revenue and investor equity into compute contracts with the clouds, and increasingly into their own sites. Anthropic just turned a small adjusted operating profit; OpenAI plans to burn $25B this year. Their revenue is the only line on the map growing faster than the capex above it.

Hop 2 · The hyperscalers

Four companies commit $720–745B of 2026 capex against ≈ $690B of operating cash flow: Microsoft and Amazon with visible backlogs ($678B and $496B), Alphabet and Meta with none to show externally. Oracle and CoreWeave rent capacity they borrow to build.

Hop 3 · Where the capex lands

About 60% is compute, 40% shells, power and networking. Of the compute, Nvidia's hyperscale segment (≈ $195B annualised) is roughly a quarter of the four's capex; custom silicon is 10–20% of accelerator dollars and growing faster. Nvidia keeps 66 cents of every revenue dollar and spends 25 on cost of goods.

Hop 4 · The chokepoints

Nvidia's dollar goes to TSMC (wafers and CoWoS; Nvidia was 19% of TSMC's 2025 revenue) and to memory (supply commitments jumped from $119B to $279B in one quarter, primarily memory). TSMC keeps 60 cents; the memory oligopoly keeps 70–80 on a price spike that is now the largest input-cost shock in the chain.

Hop 5 · Equipment and retained

TSMC reinvests ≈ 37% of revenue as capex, about a fifth of it with ASML. Memory capex flows to the same toolmakers. The dollar stops here: ASML (54% gross margin), the deposition, etch and inspection vendors, and construction are the last payees.

03 · SINCE THESE FIGURES WERE COMPILED

This map is a snapshot

Later developments are not reflected here, including Anthropic's prospectus becoming public (reported 29 September 2026) and reports that OpenAI's revenue is running below its earlier projections (8 October 2026). They are covered in the observations of 11 October 2026.257,258

Read the 11 October 2026 observations →

04 · METHOD

Bases, estimates and definitions

Three bases

2025 is actual: company filings for calendar 2025, Microsoft calendarised, Nvidia's fiscal 2026. 2026 uses the latest annualised run-rates and company guides. 2027 is our scenario: company guides where given, consensus and sell-side elsewhere, reconciled at about $1.1T of big-four capex (range $0.93–1.3T).

Estimates

≈ marks our estimate. Lab revenue is annualised run-rate, not recognised revenue; recognised figures are in the notes. Memory is shown AI-related only.

Retained

For TSMC and the memory makers, revenue less cash costs and capex. For Nvidia, revenue less operating costs.

Market values

US names at the 4 September 2026 close, Taiwan, Korea and Japan at 8 September, Amsterdam at 7 September; the labs at their latest primary-round valuations. P/E and EV/sales use public consensus for the fiscal year covering calendar 2027. Market value over a bar's own figure (the cash it keeps, or the labs' run-rate) is our calculation.

SOURCES

Each bar's panel lists the sources behind it. Numbering has gaps where a source was consolidated.

All 253 sources, numbered as cited in the map
  1. 1Bloomberg via Yahoo — Anthropic run-rate surpasses $65B
  2. 2TechCrunch — Anthropic annualized revenue surges to $65B
  3. 3CNBC — Anthropic annualized revenue climbed to $65B in July
  4. 4Fortune via Yahoo (FT) — investors expect $100–120B by year-end
  5. 5Fortune (Bloomberg) — Anthropic Q2 revenue above $11.5B
  6. 6WSJ via Yahoo — OpenAI Q2 $6.7B revenue, $12.3B operating loss
  7. 7TipRanks — Gerstner: Anthropic could exit 2026 at $80–100B ARR
  8. 8Anthropic — Series H
  9. 9Anthropic — Series G
  10. 10Anthropic — confidential draft S-1
  11. 11Reuters via AOL — public prospectus after Labor Day
  12. 12Anthropic — Amazon compute and investment
  13. 13TechCrunch — Google to invest up to $40B in Anthropic
  14. 14Anthropic — Google/Broadcom TPU partnership
  15. 15Google Cloud — Anthropic to expand use of TPUs
  16. 16Anthropic — Microsoft and Nvidia partnerships
  17. 17Quartz via Yahoo — Anthropic–Nscale $45B
  18. 18Bloomberg via Yahoo — OpenAI run-rate tops $40B
  19. 19SiliconANGLE — OpenAI ads $1B annualised
  20. 20Quartz via Yahoo — Friar all-hands, IPO in 2027
  21. 21CNBC — Friar: enterprise bigger than consumer
  22. 22The Decoder — OpenAI burn plan (The Information)
  23. 23The Decoder — OpenAI Q1 2026 actuals (The Information)
  24. 24Reuters via Yahoo — OpenAI compute spend ≈ $600B through 2030
  25. 25WSJ via Yahoo — $750B through 2030
  26. 26TechCrunch — Altman: $1.4T of commitments
  27. 27TechCrunch — OpenAI $122B at $852B
  28. 28Amazon — $50B OpenAI investment, AWS +$100B
  29. 29Microsoft — next chapter of the OpenAI partnership
  30. 30Tom's Hardware via Yahoo (WSJ) — Oracle $300B
  31. 31CoreWeave IR — OpenAI $22.4B cumulative
  32. 32Nvidia — OpenAI 10 GW partnership
  33. 33Yahoo — Huang: $30B might be the last
  34. 34Fortune — Nvidia OpenAI Ohio deal at up to $105B
  35. 35AMD — 6 GW OpenAI partnership
  36. 36Broadcom — OpenAI 10 GW
  37. 37Microsoft — FY26 Q4 earnings call transcript
  38. 38Microsoft — Form 10-K FY2026
  39. 39Amazon — 8-K Q2 2026
  40. 40Amazon — 10-Q Q2 2026
  41. 41Amazon — Q2 2026 call transcript
  42. 42Alphabet — 8-K Q2 2026
  43. 43Alphabet — 10-Q Q2 2026
  44. 44Alphabet — Q2 2026 call transcript
  45. 45Meta — Q2 2026 results
  46. 46Meta — Q2 2026 call transcript
  47. 47Meta — 10-Q Q2 2026
  48. 48PitchBook via Yahoo — $12.5B El Paso data-centre bond
  49. 49Meta — Hyperion joint venture with Blue Owl
  50. 50Oracle — Q4 and FY2026 results
  51. 51Oracle — Form 10-K FY2026
  52. 52Oracle — Q4 FY2026 call transcript
  53. 53heise — S&P downgrades Oracle to BBB−
  54. 54CoreWeave — 8-K Q2 2026
  55. 55CoreWeave — 10-Q Q2 2026
  56. 56CoreWeave — $8.5B GPU-backed facility
  57. 57FactSet Insight — Hyperscalers tap external financing
  58. 58J.P. Morgan AM — Hyperscalers: now also a credit story
  59. 59Vanguard — The AI buildout comes to the bond market
  60. 60Fortune — hyperscaler bond cover ratios
  61. 61Nvidia — 8-K Q2 FY2027
  62. 62Nvidia — 10-Q quarter ended 2026-07-26
  63. 63Nvidia — Q2 FY2027 call transcript
  64. 64CNBC — Nvidia Q2 FY27 live: 70% FY28 growth
  65. 65CNBC — GTC 2026: $1T of orders through 2027
  66. 66CNBC — Nvidia past $40B in equity bets
  67. 67CoreWeave — 8-K Nvidia $6.3B residual-capacity obligation
  68. 68Broadcom — 8-K Q2 FY26
  69. 69Broadcom — Q2 FY26 call transcript
  70. 70AMD — 8-K Q2 2026
  71. 71Marvell — Q2 FY2027 results
  72. 72Marvell — 8-K Google warrant
  73. 7336Kr — CoWoS 2026 allocation (Morgan Stanley)
  74. 74TrendForce (Yonhap) — SK hynix two-thirds of Nvidia HBM4
  75. 75PC Guide — Nvidia 19% of TSMC 2025 revenue
  76. 76BigGo (Morgan Stanley) — NVL72 racks by ODM
  77. 77TSMC — Q2 2026 results (6-K)
  78. 78TSMC — 2Q26 management report
  79. 79TSMC — 2Q26 call transcript
  80. 80TSMC — July 2026 revenue (6-K)
  81. 81TSMC IR — monthly revenue 2026
  82. 82TSMC — Form 20-F FY2025
  83. 83TrendForce — TSMC 3nm price hike
  84. 84ASML — Q2 2026 results
  85. 85ASML — Form 20-F FY2025
  86. 86SK hynix — 2Q26 results
  87. 87Investing.com — SK hynix Q2 slides
  88. 88SK hynix — Form DRS/A
  89. 89Micron — FQ3 FY2026 results
  90. 90Investing.com — Micron Q3 slides
  91. 91StockTitan — Micron FQ4 date 2026-09-30
  92. 92Samsung — Q2 2026 results
  93. 93Counterpoint — DRAM and HBM market share
  94. 94TrendForce — 1Q26 DRAM +81%
  95. 95TrendForce — 3Q26 server DRAM +13–18%
  96. 96TrendForce — HBM contract prices 2027
  97. 97Yahoo — Apple Q3 2026 call highlights
  98. 98MacRumors — Apple 3Q 2026 results
  99. 99Nvidia — 8-K Q4 and FY2026 results
  100. 100Nvidia — Form 10-K FY2026 (customer concentration, supply commitments, equity purchases)
  101. 101Nvidia — Q4 FY26 CFO commentary (hyperscalers slightly over 50% of data centre)
  102. 102TSMC — 4Q25 management report (FY2025 revenue, margins, capex)
  103. 103TSMC — 2025 Form 20-F (Customer A 19%, Customer B 17%)
  104. 104Epoch AI — AI chip supply-chain constraints (Nvidia share of HBM and CoWoS, 2025)
  105. 105Broadcom — 8-K Q4 and FY2025 results
  106. 106Broadcom — Q4 FY2025 call transcript (AI revenue about $20B, +65%)
  107. 107AMD — Q4 and FY2025 results (Data Center $16.6B)
  108. 108Marvell — Q4 and FY2026 results (data centre $6.1B)
  109. 109Amazon — Q4 2025 call transcript (1.4M Trainium2, chips business over $10B run-rate)
  110. 110ASML — Q4 and FY2025 results
  111. 111ASML — 2025 annual report (system sales by technology, end-use, region, concentration)
  112. 112SK hynix — FY2025 results
  113. 113Micron — Form 10-K FY2025
  114. 114Samsung — Q4 and FY2025 results
  115. 115TrendForce — 4Q25 DRAM contract prices revised to +18–23%
  116. 116Dell'Oro — data-centre capex +57% in 2025
  117. 117Longbridge (Morgan Stanley) — NVL72 rack shipments 2025
  118. 118GE Vernova — Q4 and FY2025 results
  119. 119Applied Materials — Q4 and FY2025 results
  120. 120Futurum — Micron Q4 FY25 (HBM TAM about $35B for 2025)
  121. 121Ed Zitron — OpenAI 2025 audited financials (revenue $13.07B, costs $34.0B, operating loss $20.9B)
  122. 122Yahoo Finance — OpenAI 2025 financials leaked, $38.5B loss (FT-verified)
  123. 123CNBC — Friar: OpenAI ARR $20B+ in 2025
  124. 124Ed Zitron — OpenAI payments to Microsoft and Azure inference spend (documents)
  125. 125SoftBank Group — completion of the additional $22.5B investment in OpenAI ($41.0B fully funded)
  126. 126Anthropic — Series F, $13B at $183B
  127. 127Anthropic — Series E, $3.5B at $61.5B
  128. 128CNBC — Google agrees to a new $1B investment in Anthropic
  129. 129Alphabet — 8-K Q4 and FY2025 results
  130. 130Alphabet — Q4 2025 call transcript (60/40 capex split; Cloud backlog $240B)
  131. 131Amazon — 8-K Q4 and FY2025 results
  132. 132Meta — 8-K Q4 and FY2025 results
  133. 133Microsoft — 8-K FY25 Q4 results
  134. 134Microsoft — FY26 Q2 call (commercial RPO $625B, ≈ 45% OpenAI)
  135. 135Microsoft — FY25 Q3 call ('roughly half' of spend on long-lived assets)
  136. 136Oracle — Form 10-K FY2025
  137. 137CoreWeave — 8-K Q4 and FY2025 results
  138. 138Fortune (Goldman Sachs) — hyperscaler IG issuance $108B in 2025, ≈ 26% of capex
  139. 139Bloomberg — Meta $30B bond sale
  140. 140Simpson Thacher — Oracle completes $18B senior notes offering
  141. 141Nvidia — recast revenue by market, Hyperscale and ACIE quarterly trend
  142. 142Nasdaq/RTT — Amazon raises $15B in first bond sale since 2022
  143. 143MUFG — Financing the AI supercycle (2025 hyperscaler capex $342B vs FCF $306B)
  144. 145Yahoo Finance — NVDA analyst estimates (FY28 revenue consensus $673B, 56 analysts)
  145. 146I/O Fund — AI capex to $1T: per-company 2027 consensus (MarketScreener)
  146. 147Motley Fool (S&P Global data) — six hyperscalers to spend $1.3T in 2027; only Microsoft free-cash-flow positive
  147. 148S&P Global Ratings — AI infrastructure investment to exceed $1.3T by 2027
  148. 149Goldman Sachs via Yahoo — consensus 2027 hyperscaler capex too conservative ($920B vs $1.1–1.4T)
  149. 15124/7 Wall St (UBS) — hyperscaler capex $1.01T / $1.45T / $1.62T for 2026–28
  150. 152Rigatoni Capital — Morgan Stanley model: ≈ $1.2T 2027, $1.4T 2028
  151. 153Broadcom — Q3 FY26 call transcript (FY27 AI ≈ $115B secured; FY28 $230B line of sight)
  152. 154Yahoo Finance — Broadcom Q3 FY26 call highlights (customer gigawatts)
  153. 155The Elec — AMD sees data-centre revenue more than doubling in 2027
  154. 157BigGo (JPMorgan) — 2027 accelerator units: TPU 8M, Trainium 3.3M, ASIC 53% of units
  155. 158TrendForce — TSMC after the call: brokerages see EUV-driven capex surge and 2027 price hikes
  156. 159Yahoo Finance — TSMC 2027 capex forecast reaches $85B
  157. 160BigGo — brokerages' TSMC targets (Goldman, JPMorgan +28–30% for 2027; capex $78B)
  158. 161Digitimes — TSMC CoWoS capacity ≥ 200k wafers a month in 2027
  159. 162ASML — Q2 2026 call transcript (2027 capacity +30%, virtually all booked)
  160. 163SEMI — equipment sales forecast (WFE +21.8% in 2027; $229.5B total by 2028)
  161. 164BigGo — KLA Q4 FY26 call (industry planning case ≈ $190B WFE for 2027)
  162. 165Investing.com — Micron FQ3 FY26 call transcript (FY27 capex above mid-$40B; HBM TAM > $100B in 2027)
  163. 166Herald Business — SK hynix 2027 operating-profit consensus KRW 391.8T (FnGuide)
  164. 167TrendForce — HBM prices potentially up 50%+ in 2027; UBS +79%
  165. 168TechCrunch — Samsung expects the memory shortage to worsen through 2027 and last until 2028
  166. 170CNBC — Friar: OpenAI 'will be a public company in 2027'
  167. 171Yahoo Finance — OpenAI reportedly targeting an IPO above $1T, raising $60B at the low end
  168. 172Futuresearch — OpenAI financial forecasts through 2027
  169. 174Data Center Frontier — OpenAI–Oracle $300B Stargate deal, from 2027
  170. 175Tom's Hardware — Broadcom to supply Anthropic 3.5 GW of TPU capacity from 2027
  171. 176Apollo (FactSet) — consensus revised up hyperscaler capex, free cash flow down
  172. 177S&P Global Market Intelligence — US utility capex $275.6B in 2027, ≈ $1.3T 2026–30
  173. 178Dell'Oro — 2026 data-centre capex above $1T; accelerators ≈ one-third of capex
  174. 179Tom's Hardware (TrendForce) — memory ≈ 30% of hyperscaler AI spend in 2026, 68% of hardware spend by 2027
  175. 180VanEck — Nvidia Q2 FY27 call: the top-5 capex view sits $200B above consensus
  176. 181stockanalysis — Microsoft price history (close $499.70 on 2026-09-04) and forecast (FY2027 consensus revenue $391.1B, EPS $19.75)
  177. 182SEC — Microsoft 10-K FY2026: 7,425,545,491 shares at 2026-07-23; cash $76.8B, debt $40.3B, finance leases $66.6B; FCF $67.0B
  178. 183stockanalysis — Amazon price history (close $258.51 on 2026-09-04)
  179. 184SEC — Amazon 10-Q Q2 2026: 10,786,313,572 shares at 2026-07-22; cash and securities $123.0B, debt $132.5B; TTM FCF −$7.6B
  180. 185stockanalysis — Alphabet price history (GOOGL close $338.46 on 2026-09-04)
  181. 186SEC — Alphabet 10-Q Q2 2026: 12,230M shares at 2026-07-15; cash and securities $242.5B, debt $100.2B; June-2026 $49.6B equity raise; TTM FCF $53.3B
  182. 187stockanalysis — Meta price history (close $616.77 on 2026-09-04)
  183. 188SEC — Meta 10-Q Q2 2026: 2,547,506,225 shares at 2026-07-24; cash and securities $90.3B, notes $83.7B; TTM FCF $37.9B
  184. 189Yahoo Finance — analyst estimates, FY2027 consensus revenue and EPS for Amazon ($946.7B, $10.49), Alphabet ($612.5B, $14.86), Meta ($305.5B, $33.95), fetched 2026-09-08
  185. 190companiesmarketcap — market caps stamped 2026-09-07 (the 2026-09-04 close carried over Labor Day), used as the cross-check on computed caps
  186. 191stockanalysis — Oracle price history (close $158.78 on 2026-09-04) and forecast (FY2027 consensus revenue $89.4B, non-GAAP EPS $8.06)
  187. 192SEC — Oracle 10-K FY2026: 2,880,471,000 shares at 2026-06-12; cash $31.9B, notes $129.5B; FY26 FCF −$23.7B; Q1 FY27 due 2026-09-10
  188. 193stockanalysis — CoreWeave price history (close $89.36 on 2026-09-04)
  189. 194SEC — CoreWeave 10-Q Q2 2026: 551,536,602 shares at 2026-07-31; debt $35.1B; backlog $104B; TTM FCF −$14.5B
  190. 195CoreWeave — Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (2026-08-11): FY2026 revenue $12.4–13.2B, capex $35–39B, exit run-rate $18.5–19.5B
  191. 196alphaspread — CoreWeave analyst estimates: FY2027 revenue $28.1B, EPS −$2.03 (2026-09-04)
  192. 197TechCrunch — OpenAI closes its $122B round at an $852B post-money valuation (2026-03-31)
  193. 198CNBC — OpenAI wraps a $7B employee share sale at the same $852B mark (2026-08-10)
  194. 199Anthropic — Series H: $65B at a $965B post-money valuation (2026-05-28)
  195. 200FT via PYMNTS — investors expect Anthropic to seek a $2T-plus valuation in an October listing (2026-08-13)
  196. 201Quartz — Anthropic secondary-market mark ≈ $1.2T on Caplight (2026-07-09); OpenAI ≈ $908B
  197. 202FactSet Earnings Insight (2026-09-04) — S&P 500 forward 12-month P/E 19.5×, 5-year average 19.8×
  198. 203CNBC — OpenAI CFO: public company in 2027 (2026-08-19)
  199. 204stockanalysis — Nebius price history (close $226.39 on 2026-09-04) and forecast (FY2027 revenue ≈ $12.4B, loss-making)
  200. 205SEC — Nebius Q2 2026 results (6-K, 2026-08-12): 271.9M shares, $8.0B cash, $8.5B convertibles, ARR $3.0B
  201. 206Yahoo Finance — Nvidia price history (close $230.36 on 2026-09-04; $171.66 a year earlier)
  202. 207stockanalysis — Nvidia forecast: FY2027 consensus revenue $411.3B, EPS $9.31 (60 analysts)
  203. 208MarketScreener — Nvidia consensus: FY2028 revenue $677.8B, EPS $15.55 (fetched 2026-09-08)
  204. 209SEC EDGAR — Nvidia 10-Q filings (Q2 FY2027 cover: 24.1B shares at 2026-08-21; net cash $23B; $99.3B buyback authorisation)
  205. 210Yahoo Finance — Broadcom analyst estimates: FY2027 revenue $173.4B, EPS $19.37 (fetched 2026-09-08)
  206. 211Yahoo Finance — Broadcom price history (close $357.90 on 2026-09-04)
  207. 212stockanalysis — AMD price history (close $477.57 on 2026-09-04) and forecast
  208. 213MarketScreener — AMD consensus: FY2027 revenue $87.6B (54 analysts); Finviz next-year EPS $15.73
  209. 214Yahoo Finance — Marvell price history (close $223.55 on 2026-09-04)
  210. 215stockanalysis — Marvell forecast: FY2028 revenue ≈ $18.2B, EPS $6.77; company guide ≈ $18B (2026-08-27)
  211. 216Yahoo Finance — Dell analyst estimates: FY2028 revenue $221.7B; FY2027 $193.5B (guide $192B)
  212. 217Yahoo Finance — Dell price history (close $524.14 on 2026-09-04; $126.67 a year earlier)
  213. 218SEC EDGAR — Super Micro 10-K FY2026 (filed 2026-08-31): 657.0M shares, $8.7B debt, $4.3B mandatory convertible preferred, FCF −$7.0B
  214. 219stockanalysis — Super Micro forecast: FY2027 revenue $67.1B, EPS $4.34; company guide $65–72B
  215. 220SEC EDGAR — Arista 10-Q filings (Q2 2026 cover: 1,261.2M shares; $13.3B cash, no debt)
  216. 221stockanalysis — Arista forecast and history (close $193.78 on 2026-09-04; FY2027 revenue ≈ $16.2B, EPS ≈ $5.22)
  217. 222Yahoo Finance — Vertiv price history (close $280.53 on 2026-09-04)
  218. 223stockanalysis — Vertiv forecast: FY2027 revenue $18.2B; adjusted EPS ≈ $8.96 (single source)
  219. 224Yahoo Finance — GE Vernova analyst estimates: FY2027 revenue $52.7B, EPS $24.80
  220. 225Yahoo Finance — GE Vernova price history (close $941.95 on 2026-09-04)
  221. 226stockanalysis — Schneider Electric (EPA: SU) history and statistics (close €295.50 on 2026-09-07)
  222. 227MarketScreener — Schneider Electric consensus: FY2027 revenue €48.8B, EPS €11.38 (reported basis)
  223. 228Yahoo Finance — Eaton price history (close $410.85 on 2026-09-04)
  224. 229stockanalysis — Eaton forecast: FY2027 revenue $36.6B; adjusted EPS ≈ $15.94
  225. 230TSMC — 2Q26 Management Report: balance sheet, cash flow, US$ revenue by quarter, capex
  226. 231MarketScreener — TSMC consensus: FY2026 NT$5,435B / NT$107.4; FY2027 NT$7,296B / NT$141.3 (fetched 2026-09-08)
  227. 232stockanalysis — TSMC (TPE: 2330) statistics: NT$2,470 close on 2026-09-08; 25.93B shares
  228. 233Micron — FQ3 2026 results (2026-06-24): revenue $41.5B, GAAP operating margin 80%; FQ4 guide $50B
  229. 234MarketScreener — Micron consensus: FY2026 $129.7B / $72.67; FY2027 $241.1B / $149.90 (49 analysts)
  230. 235stockanalysis — Micron statistics (close $1,016.59 on 2026-09-04; 1,129.4M shares)
  231. 236SK hynix — 2Q 2026 results (2026-07-29): revenue ₩79.3T, operating margin 76%, net cash ₩69.4T
  232. 237MarketScreener — SK hynix consensus: FY2027 revenue ₩536.5T, EPS ₩484,799
  233. 238Google Finance — SK hynix (KRX: 000660) close ₩1,793,000 on 2026-09-08; market cap ₩1,309.8T
  234. 239Samsung — 2Q 2026 results (newsroom): group operating profit ₩89.5T, Device Solutions ₩89.2T
  235. 240Samsung — 2Q 2026 earnings deck: segment operating profit, balance sheet (Appendix 3)
  236. 241MarketScreener — Samsung Electronics consensus: FY2027 revenue ₩958.0T, EPS ₩69,574
  237. 242ASML — Q2 2026 results (2026-07-15): FY2026 guide raised to €43–45B; net cash €5.6B
  238. 243MarketScreener — ASML consensus: FY2026 €42.8B / €37.88; FY2027 €54.5B / €51.56 (43 analysts)
  239. 244stockanalysis — ASML (AMS) statistics: €1,500.40 close on 2026-09-07; 384.1M shares
  240. 245Applied Materials — FQ3 2026 results (2026-08-13): revenue $9.1B, GAAP operating margin 33.7%
  241. 246MarketScreener — Applied Materials consensus: FY2027 revenue $46.1B, EPS $18.37
  242. 247Lam Research — June-2026 quarter results (2026-07-29)
  243. 248MarketScreener — Lam Research consensus: FY2027 revenue $34.8B, EPS $9.41
  244. 249KLA — FQ4 and FY2026 results; 10-for-1 split effective 2026-06-12
  245. 250MarketScreener — KLA consensus: FY2027 revenue $18.1B, EPS $5.40 (post-split)
  246. 251Tokyo Electron — Q1 FY2027 consolidated results (tanshin, 2026-07-30): 454.7M shares net of treasury; no interest-bearing debt
  247. 252MarketScreener — Tokyo Electron consensus: FY2027 (Mar-27) revenue ¥3,389B, EPS ¥1,689
  248. 253ECB — euro reference exchange rates (EUR/USD 1.1622 on 2026-09-07); USD/TWD 31.50, USD/KRW 1,342.9, USD/JPY 154.15 from Yahoo Finance on 2026-09-08
  249. 254stockanalysis — Hon Hai Precision (TPE: 2317) statistics: NT$251.50 close on 2026-09-08, market cap NT$3.53T, forward P/E 12.0, EV/sales 0.38, FCF yield −1.2% (aggregator; consensus basis next twelve months)
  250. 255stockanalysis — Quanta Computer (TPE: 2382) statistics: NT$328.00 close on 2026-09-08, market cap NT$1.26T, forward P/E 11.5, EV/sales 0.46, FCF yield −2.8% (aggregator; consensus basis next twelve months)
  251. 256History of Market — Nasdaq-100 forward P/E ≈ 22× (weekly, 2026-09-08; provider basis unclear, low confidence)
  252. 257Anthropic IPO prospectus lays bare deep dependence on Big Tech partners (Reuters via Investing.com, 29 Sep 2026)
  253. 258OpenAI's revenue is reportedly $20 billion less than previously projected (TechCrunch, citing the FT, 8 Oct 2026)

← All observations

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

These observations are general market commentary, published for information only. They are not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security, and they do not take into account any reader's objectives or circumstances. Mentions of companies are not recommendations. Figures are as dated and sourced; our own calculations and estimates are labelled as such. Views may change without notice.

Compiled with AI assistance (Claude, developed by Anthropic) from public sources. Anthropic is one of the companies discussed.

JUELUNAI Advisory · Singaporehello@juelun.vc